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Planes Almost Collide At 2 Major Airports As Boeing Probe Advances

Planes Almost Collide At 2 Major Airports As Boeing Probe Advances

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

As the U.S. Justice Department decides whether to pursue a criminal case against Boeing, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is investigating dozens of airplane incidents since January, including one in which a Swiss Air jet almost collided with four other planes on the runway at JFK International Airport in New York City.

An air traffic control tower at JFK airport in New York City, on Jan. 11, 2023. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

The FAA has more than 100 aviation accidents and incidents since the beginning of 2024. These include airplane and helicopter crashes, equipment and mechanical malfunctions, and communication breakdowns with air traffic controllers that almost caused runway collisions at several major U.S. airports.

These incidents come as public scrutiny of Boeing increases after multiple issues have been reported with their jets. After an Alaskan Airways flight experienced a mid-air blowout of a door plug on Jan. 5, the Justice Department is considering revoking a 2021 deferred prosecution agreement with the company and pursuing a criminal case.

There is also growing criticism of Air Traffic Control (ATC) and the FAA’s hiring practices after multiple near-collisions were reported, including at JFK Airport and Reagan National Airport in Arlington, Virginia.

The JFK incident occurred on April 17. Pilots on a Swiss Air flight headed to Zurich, Switzerland, were forced to hit the brakes after the plane was cleared for takeoff because air traffic controllers simultaneously opened the runway for four other planes.

The next day, a similar incident played out at Reagan Washington National Airport, which services the Washington area. ATC cleared a JetBlue flight for takeoff as a Southwest Airlines flight was told to taxi across the same runway in front of it, according to ATC audio.

A runway controller cleared the JetBlue flight, while a taxiing controller cleared the Southwest Airlines flight. The two planes came within 400 feet of a collision before each controller ordered the planes to stop.

JetBlue 1554 stop! 1554 stop!” said the tower controller, as the ground controller said “2937 stop!” to the Southwest Airlines plane.

Two airplanes—JetBlue and Southwest—nearly collided at DC’s Reagan National Airport on Thursday, avoiding each other by only 400 feet.

Air traffic control recordings show the moment controllers yelled at the JetBlue flight to “stop!” its takeoff.pic.twitter.com/Td1VTimVD0

— Julia 🇺🇸 (@Jules31415) April 19, 2024

Since sudden runway stops can overheat airplane brakes, the JetBlue flight was inspected before it safely departed the airport.

The agency said it is investigating both incidents.

Juan Browne, a Boeing 777 first officer pilot for a major U.S. airline company, told The Epoch Times that while the number of airplane accidents has remained steady, ATC incidents are “on the rise.”

He said the “primary driver” of this phenomenon is the “huge turnover” in the industry, as controllers retired during the COVID-19 pandemic. Many retired early, creating a “big shortage of people, pilots, and air traffic controllers,” and some, including pilots and others, retired due to vaccine mandates.

However, other factors leading to ATC communication breakdowns include diversity-focused hiring practices, a bottleneck in controller training, distractions, and pilot error.

Diversity Hiring Practices

Many, including aviation expert Kyle Bailey, have called out the FAA for prioritizing “diversity” in its hiring practices, alleging that hiring pilots or controllers based on their skin instead of their merit, can lead to safety issues.

A JetBlue airplane at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Va., on March 9, 2023. (Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)

Diversity really has nothing to do with safe travel,” Mr. Bailey told Fox News Digital in January.

The aviation agency’s “Diversity and Inclusion webpage, last updated on March 23, 2022, says, ”Diversity is integral to achieving the FAA’s mission of ensuring safe and efficient travel across our nation and beyond.”

In its  “Aviation Safety Workforce Plan, the agency explains this policy further.

“[Diversity] practices facilitate the organization in attracting and hiring talented applicants from diverse backgrounds and to meet future needs. A commitment to diversity and inclusion supports [aviation safety’s] strategic initiative to create a workforce with the leadership, technical, and functional skills necessary to ensure the U.S. has the world’s safest and most productive aviation sector.”

Later, the agency discusses how this can impact operations.

“The projected growth in demand and diversity from conventional customers, as well as new entrants in non-traditional areas will challenge the FAA’s ability to provide responsive and consistent service to our stakeholders, the report reads.

Air traffic controllers keep watch at Miami International Airport in Fla., on March 6, 2017. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

In February, a coalition of 11 Republican attorneys general, led by Kansas Attorney General Kris Kobach, submitted a letter to the FAA alleging that diversity hiring practices could put passengers’ lives at risk.

“It seems that the FAA has placed ‘diversity bean counting over safety and expertise, and we worry that such misordered priorities could be catastrophic for American travelers, Mr. Kobach wrote in the letter.

“Millions of Americans place their lives and the lives of their loved ones in the hands of your agency … Unfortunately, the Biden FAA, under your administration, appears to prioritize virtue-signaling ‘diversity efforts over aviation expertise. And this calls into question the agency’s commitment to safety, he added.

The letter accused the Obama administration of seeking out applicants with “severe intellectual” and “psychiatric” disabilities, noting that the FAA’s “Diversity and Inclusion” webpage currently has the same language on it.

Kansas Attorney General Kris Kobach during a news conference outside his office in Topeka, Kan., on May 1, 2023. (John Hanna/AP Photo/ File Photo)

Mr. Browne, who has been a commercial pilot for 25 years, told The Epoch Times that there is a big drive towards on-the-job diversity in all U.S. industries, and aviation is no different.

“I can’t speak specifically to what those requirements are at the FAA ATC program, but we definitely need to ask ourselves: Are we hiring and training the correct people for the jobs?” he asked.

“How are we getting the most qualified applicants out there to fill these jobs?”

Retirements and Training ‘Bottleneck’

Another factor leading to issues with ATC is the sheer volume of retirements in the aviation industry during the pandemic, Mr. Browne said.

He explained that some pilots and air traffic controllers were close to retirement age when the pandemic started, with many deciding to retire early. This created a shortage of applicants and now a shortage of active workers, as both the FAA and ATC struggled to keep up when a waning pandemic caused airline travel demand to increase.

“So we got a lot of new folks out there on the job right now, a lot of on-the-job training going on right now. And a lot of mistakes being made up there as well,” he said.

Some also retired early because they declined to take the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine when it was briefly mandated by the FAA, Mr. Browne added.

Syringes filled with COVID-19 vaccines sit on a table at a vaccination clinic in a file image. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

With these early retirements came limited training opportunities and a “shortage of qualified controllers.”

“There was a big bottleneck in training throughout the aviation industry, whether it was for pilots or for air traffic controllers who have trained up in Oklahoma City, the home of the FAA,” Mr. Browne said.

“And so, now, the FAA is trying to do more with less.”

He explained that the agency is working its current and new controllers “much harder and longer hours than they have in the past” to “backfill” the demand after airlines quickly and unexpectedly recovered from the pandemic. This “exacerbated the shortage of both pilots and air traffic controllers,” Mr. Browne said.

In a statement to The Epoch Times, the FAA disputed the claim that there were “excessive controller retirements during the pandemic.”

Distractions, Infrastructure, Budget Issues

As a Boeing 777 pilot, Mr. Browne mostly flies overseas. When he flies into cities like London or Sydney, he says the radio channels through ATC are “a lot less chaotic” and more “organized” compared to the United States.

“Here in the States, we’re pushing so much material, so many aircraft through such a tight system and dealing with weather constantly,” he explained.

“And yet, there seems to be a lot of miscommunications between different members of the staff, for example, ground controllers versus tower controllers.”

A plane passes the air traffic control tower at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Va., on June 5, 2017. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)

It was a miscommunication between ground and tower controllers that resulted in the near-collision at Reagan Washington National Airport on April 18.

Mr. Browne said he often hears a lot of background noise coming over the radio from within the control towers. Pilots are instructed to maintain a “sterile cockpit” whenever they’re below 10,000 feet, he explained. That means pilots must refrain from any conversation outside plane operations until they reach that altitude to “avoid distractions.”

“Is that not the case with the ATC?” Mr. Browne asked.

He explained that working in ATC can be a boring job, so it’s “human nature to get distracted, to do something else to break the monotony,” even if it’s critical to avoid this to prevent putting passengers’ lives at risk.

However, it’s not just distractions leading to issues with coordinating plane routes on runways. The infrastructure throughout the aviation industry struggles to keep pace with the growing demand for air travel.

Mr. Browne explained that ATC, airports, runways, plane parking access, and the number of gates were all designed for “a lot less traffic.”

“But in general, where we are, the demand is outstripping the capacity of the system. And that leads to, in the case of the FAA controllers, a lot of overtime and a lot of tired controllers on the job,” he added.

There are also budget concerns for ATC. Mr. Browne wonders if Congress is allocating enough funds to keep pace with air travel demands but said that question is up to congressional leaders to consider.

A plane passes the air traffic control tower at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Va., on June 5, 2017. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)

Lastly, pilots are sometimes at fault as well for aviation incidents, he explained.

Mr. Browne said there are multiple factors worth considering in addressing these problems. Not only could Congress increase the FAA’s budget, but ATC can be more transparent when there are incidents like the ones on April 17 and 18.

When pilots make significant mistakes, a full investigation commences immediately. But for air traffic controllers, it’s not always the same approach, Mr. Browne said.

However, the most significant factor is getting the best applicants for pilot and air traffic controller positions.

Make sure we’re hiring the right people for the job, regardless of who they are or what they are. Make sure you’re hiring the most qualified people for these very demanding jobs,” Mr. Browne added.

“If we continue to perform at this level, [these incidents] will eventually lead to a disaster.”

The FAA told The Epoch Times that it is working to address some of these issues, but did not specifically comment on the “diversity hiring” allegations.

“Hiring highly qualified air traffic controllers is a top priority at the FAA. Every FAA-certified air traffic controller has gone through months of screening and training at the FAA Academy, and that is before another 18-24 months of training to learn specific regions and airspace.

“There is a well-known national shortage of air traffic controllers and the FAA has ramped up outreach to ensure no talent is left on the table. We are accelerating the pace of recruiting, training, and hiring to meet demand while maintaining the highest qualification standards,” the agency said in a statement.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/26/2024 – 17:00

 

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“The Yen Collapse Has Become Disorderly”: Look For A Final, Sharp Decline Before It Hits A Floor

“The Yen Collapse Has Become Disorderly”: Look For A Final, Sharp Decline Before It Hits A Floor

The BOJ came, issued the shortest statement in the history of central banks

… and left, leaving traders stunned and speechless at the sheer idiocy of the world’s most clownish central bank, which has decided to invite currency collapse the same abandon as Zimbabwe, if it means pushing up domestic stonks a little bit more even as hyperinflation is unleashed among Japanese society. And now that the collapse in the yen is making banana republics like Turkey blush, and is making FX managers and traders who are still long the Japanese Dong Lira Yen to the imploding “developed” insolvent, everyone wants to know what happens next?

Below we share to views, one from Deutsche Bank’s Geroge Saravelos, and one from SocGen’s Kit Juckes.

We start with the DB FX strategist who frames the BOJ’s wilful incompetence merely as “benign neglect”, to wit:

On the collapse

The yen has again collapsed today to fresh record lows following the Bank of Japan meeting. We think this is warranted and that this finally marks the day where the market realizes that Japan is following a policy of benign neglect for the yen. We have long argued that FX intervention is not credible and the toning down of verbal jawboning from the finance minister overnight is on balance a positive from a credibility perspective. The possibility of intervention can’t be ruled out if the market turns disorderly, but it is also notable that Governor Ueda played down the importance of the yen in his press conference today as well as signalling no urgency to hike rates. We would frame the ongoing yen collapse around the following points.

Yen weakness is simply not that bad for Japan. The tourism sector is booming, profit margins on the Nikkei are soaring and exporter competitiveness is increasing. True, the cost of imported items is going up. But growth is fine, the government is helping offset some of the cost via subsidies and core inflation is not accelerating. Most importantly, the Japanese are huge foreign asset owners via Japan’s positive net international investment position. Yen weakness therefore leads to huge capital gains on foreign bonds and equities, most easily summarized in the observation that the government pension fund (GPIF) has roughly made more profits over the last two years than the last twenty years combined.
There simply isn’t an inflation problem. Japan’s core CPI is around 2% and has been decelerating in recent months. The Tokyo CPI overnight was 1.7% excluding one-off effects. To be sure, inflation may well accelerate again helped by FX weakness and high wage growth. But the starting point of inflation is entirely different to the post-COVID hiking cycles of the Fed and ECB. By extension, the inflation pain is far less and the urgency to hike far less too. No where is this more obvious than the fact that Japanese consumer confidence are close to their cycle highs.
Negative real rates are great. There is a huge attraction to running negative real rates for the consolidated government  balance sheet. As we demonstrated last year, it creates fiscal space via a $20 trillion carry trade while also generating asset gains for Japan’s wealthy voting base. This encourages the persistent domestic capital outflows we have been highlighting as a key driver of yen weakness over the last year and that have pushed Japan’s broad basic balance to being one of the weakest in the world. It is not speculators that are weakening the yen but the Japanese themselves.

The bottom line is that for the JPY to turn stronger the Japanese need to unwind their carry trade. But for this to make sense the Bank of Japan needs to engineer an expedited hiking cycle similar to the post-COVID experiences of other central banks. Time will tell if the BoJ is moving too slow and generating a policy mistake. A shift in BoJ inflation forecasts to well above 2% over their forecast horizon would be the clearest signal of a shift in reaction function. But this isn’t happening now. The Japanese are enjoying the ride

(More in the full note available to pro subs.)

And next, here is the somewhat more actionable view from SocGen’s FX strategist Kit Juckes:

The yen’s decline is becoming disorderly, which points to a final, potentially sharp, decline before it finds a floor

The Bank of Japan, as was universally expected, made no changes to interest rates at today’s policy-setting meeting, though they did edge inflation forecasts higher. Forecasts for the 2025/26 fiscal year look for core inflation (ex-food and energy) at 2.1% and real GDP growth of 1%. In Japan, as in most countries, yields have tended to average more than nominal GDP growth over time, and on that basis the US/Japanese yield differential is set to narrow significantly in the coming quarters. However, for now US yields are rising and Japanese ones are still anchored by very low short-term rates. Those short-term rates give short yen trades their positive carry and have kept the leveraged trading community happy for months.

The chart shows the US-Japanese yield differential and USD/JPY over the last 20 years, with the yield chart extended using the OECD’s forecasts for yields. These are just forecasts but they frame the issue quiet well, particularly bearing in mind how undervalued the yen is now, on any fundamental long-term valuation. If PPP for USD/JPY is now in the mid-90s, fair value adjusted for US exceptionalism and Japanification is still around 110. As long as yield differentials are large and growing, upward pressure on USD/JPY persists and while eventual return to much lower levels is inevitable, the danger here is that unless Japan’s policymakers are much more aggressive (with intervention and monetary policy), this move higher in USD/JPY will end in a final excessive spike higher.  

 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/26/2024 – 16:40

 

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NYPD Warns Anti-Israel Protesters A ‘Seattle-Style’ Occupation Zone Won’t Be Tolerated

NYPD Warns Anti-Israel Protesters A ‘Seattle-Style’ Occupation Zone Won’t Be Tolerated

Authored by Patricia Tolson via The Epoch Times,

As protests escalate across college and university campuses in the United States, a New York Police Department (NYPD) official vowed that a “Seattle-style” occupation zone will not be tolerated on the streets of New York City.

Two New York Police Department (NYPD) officials spoke with Fox News’ “The Story” anchor Trace Gallagher on April 25. The conversation focused on growing concerns that the anti-Israel protests spreading across America’s college campuses might devolve into further violence.

NYPD Deputy Commissioner of Operations Kaz Daughtry addressed growing speculation that the student anti-Israel encampments could evolve into something similar to the “autonomous zone” established in Seattle, in Washington state, in response to the death of George Floyd in May 2020, suggesting they might “linger and last all summer long and become bigger and more dangerous.”

It was a possibility immediately shut down by Chief of Patrol John Chell.

“We will not have any Seattle-type encampments on the streets of New York City. I can guarantee you that — that would end rather quickly,” he asserted.

The Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone, also known by its acronym CHAZ and later CHOP (Capitol Hill Organized Protest), became a scene of widespread vandalism and violence that spanned more than six blocks in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Seattle.

A shooting on June 20, 2020, claimed the life of a 19-year-old man and injured a 33-year-old man, as reported by The New York Times on July 1, 2020.  The next day, a 17-year-old man was injured in another shooting. A third shooting took the life of a 16-year-old and left a 14-year-old seriously injured.

“The fine line here is the street, the public property, which we’ll deal with, and the college is the private property,” Mr. Chell explained.

“That’s why we got to strike this balance. Let me repeat, there will never be encampments on the streets of New York City while we’re in power, never going to happen.”

After the NYPD deployed counterterrorism units to the Columbia University campus, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) took to social media platform X to condemn the move as a “horrific” decision, adding that NYPD officers had “some of the most violent reputations on the force.”

Mr. Chell responded the next day, defending the “units” and informing her that he was with them when they were deployed to the university.

“These ‘units’ removed students with great care and professionalism, not a single incident was reported,” he said.

“Maybe you should walk around Columbia and NYU and listen to their remarks of pure hatred,” he added. “I will ensure those ‘units’ will protect you as they do for all NYers 24/7/365.”

Mr. Daugherty added his thoughts saying, “There is nothing ‘horrific’ about protecting the safety of Columbia’s young students who are just trying to go to school.”

He also defended NYPD officers, describing them as “the best and most highly trained law enforcement professionals in the world.”

Mr. Daugherty invited Ms. Ocasio-Cortez to “visit Columbia” for a walk-through, promising to protect her and take a report if she feels threatened.

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) speaks to a crowd gathered for a march to defund the Minneapolis Police Department in Minneapolis, Minn., on June 6, 2020. (Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

Request for Help

The presence of the NYPD at Columbia was by request.

Columbia University’s president, Minouche Shafik, had personally reached out to the NYPD in a letter, requesting their assistance in clearing the encampment set up by more than 100 students on the south lawn of Columbia’s Morningside Heights campus on April 17.

Students had been repeatedly warned, both verbally and in writing, that they were in violation of university rules and policies and would have to disperse. Students staying in the encampment were also informed that they had been suspended.

“I have determined that the encampment and related disruptions pose a clear and present danger to the substantial functioning of the University,” she wrote,“ adding that it was ”With great regret, we request the NYPD’s help to remove these individuals.”

A total of 108 students were arrested for trespassing.

Among them was Isra Hirsi, a student from Barnard, Columbia’s sister college. Ms. Hirsi is the daughter of Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), a frequent critic of Israel.

Following her daughter’s arrest, Rep. Omar praised her daughter on social media.

At an April 18 press conference, New York City Mayor Eric Adams explained that the arrests were made because the protesters had been camped out on Columbia’s south lawn for more than 30 hours, in violation of the university’s rules.

He confirmed that the NYPD was dispatched to the campus only after students received “numerous warnings” to disband and after Ms. Shafik reached out to the NYPD “in writing,” requesting support.

He stressed that “no violence or injuries” occurred during the incident.

While acknowledging that Columbia’s students have a right to free speech, he said they “do not have the right to violate university policies and disrupt learning on campus.”

Ms. Shafik issued a statement on April 22, expressing sadness over what is taking place on Columbia’s campus. She said the activities of the protesting students have “severely tested” community bonds and imposed a state of fear among students “across an array of communities.”

On April 21, Columbia’s chief operating officer, Cas Holloway, outlined the enhanced safety measures being imposed on the Morningside Heights campus, where the protesters were “causing considerable disruption and distress.”

The increased security measures include additional security personnel, enhanced security around the perimeter of the Morningside Heights campus, additional security at the Kraft Center, and increased identification checks to make sure that only Columbia University students are on campus.

Republicans Condemn Hatred

Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC), chair of the House Education Committee, sent a letter to university leaders on April 21, warning them of consequences if they do not gain control of “the encampment and related activities” which “have created a severe and pervasive hostile environment for Jewish students at Columbia.”

A total of 10 Republican members of Congress sent a letter to Ms. Shafik on April 22, urging her to resign immediately.

House Speaker Mike Johnson held a press conference on the steps of the university’s Low library near the student’s “Liberty Zone” encampment on April 24, and called for her resignation if she could not gain control of her campus.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) holds a press conference at the Columbia campus to call for the resignation of university president Minouche Shafik, in New York City, on April 24, 2024. (Alex Kent/Getty Images)

“We just can’t allow this kind of hatred and anti-Semitism to flourish on our campuses, and it must be stopped in its tracks,” he said.

“Those who are perpetuating this violence should be arrested.”

His visit to the campus, which took place shortly after the university extended a deadline by 48 hours (until April 26) to reach an agreement on the removal of the encampment, was to show support for Jewish students, who have been intimidated, threatened, and assaulted by anti-Israeli protesters.

His presence was immediately met by boos and his comments were frequently interrupted with chants of, “We can’t hear you,” and “Free Palestine.”

The University of Southern California was forced to close its campus after campus police were overwhelmed during an effort to shut down an encampment. To clear the area, they had to enlist the help of the Los Angeles Police Department. As students surrendered peacefully, they were arrested.

Student protesters have also set up an encampment at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, the Detroit Free Press reported on April  23.

Nine people were reportedly arrested by University of Minnesota police after pro-Palestinian students set up an encampment on the Northrop Mall. Ms. Omar made an appearance, telling the students through a loudspeaker that she was “moved” by their “courage and bravery” in taking a stand “to end the genocide,” Star Tribune reported.

More than 20 tents, festooned with pro-Palestinian signage and flags, have been erected in front of a chapel on the campus of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, as reported by CNN.

Dozens of student protesters were arrested at the University of Southern California on April 24 and the campus of California State Polytechnic, in Humboldt, was shut down as students barricaded themselves inside a building for a third day, the Associated Press reported on April 25.

At the University of Texas, 57 students were arrested by campus police during a protest organized by the Palestine Solidarity Committee when students tried to “occupy” the South Lawn, Austin television station KXAN reported.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/26/2024 – 16:20

 

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Micro Trumps Macro As Stocks Shrug Off Week Of Higher Inflation, Higher Rates, & Lower Growth

Micro Trumps Macro As Stocks Shrug Off Week Of Higher Inflation, Higher Rates, & Lower Growth

It was an ugly macro week…

Source: Bloomberg

…and worse still, ‘growth’ surprises disappointed significantly while ‘inflation’ surprises surprised to the upside significantly…

Source: Bloomberg

Soaring inflation expectations sent rate-cut expectations to new cycle lows…

Source: Bloomberg

…pushing yields higher across the board (led by the long-end)…

Source: Bloomberg

But, stocks didn’t care about any of that because a handful of mega-cap tech stocks’ earnings were awesome (except META) – and that’s what matters (for now)…

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq outperformed, up 4% on the week (its best week since the start of Nov 2023). The Dow was the laggard on the week but all the majors had a decent week…

Not the best week for some observers…

Traders 1: Marko 0 https://t.co/T6PHjRSrMF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 26, 2024

This week saw the biggest short-squeeze since the first week of March…

Source: Bloomberg

And the basket of Magnificent 7 stocks soared over 5% this week, its best week since the first week of November (Fed Pivot) – but it was noisy as TSLA surged, META tumbled, and then GOOGL/MSFT lifted the lid…

Source: Bloomberg

Tech and Discretionary outperformed on the week with Energy and Materials lagging (but all sectors ended the week green)…

Source: Bloomberg

5.00% remains the Maginot Line for the 2Y Yield…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, the dollar ended the week practically unchanged – despite a lot of noise…

Source: Bloomberg

…despite the seventh straight week of declines in the yen vs the dollar as it appears the BoJ and MoF have given up…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was dumped this week – its worst week since the start of December 2023. Spot prices did find support at $2300 though…

Source: Bloomberg

After two down weeks, oil prices rallied this week, with WTI back above $83…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, intraday volatility has picked up dramatically in the last couple of weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

…as the distribution of possible rate outcomes has picked up significantly. Don’t forget next week’s QRA and FOMC as Yellen and Powell get ‘back to work’.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/26/2024 – 16:00

 

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Trump Responds To Main ‘Hush Money’ Trial Witness’s Claims

Trump Responds To Main ‘Hush Money’ Trial Witness’s Claims

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Former President Donald Trump praised the first witness in his New York City “hush money” trial, former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker, as he is scheduled to deliver more testimony in the case on Friday.

“He’s been very nice. David’s been very nice. He’s a nice guy,” President Trump said on Thursday, responding to a question about Mr. Pecker’s testimony over the past week or so.

During cross-examinations Thursday, Mr. Pecker detailed how he obtained potentially damaging stories about the candidate and paid out tens of thousands of dollars to keep them from the public eye.

But when it came to the seamy claims by adult performer Stormy Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, the former National Enquirer publisher said he put his foot down.

“I am not paying for this story,” he told jurors Thursday at President Trump’s trial, recounting his version of a conversation with President Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen about attempts to suppress allegations that prosecutors claim amounted to election interference in the 2016 campaign. Mr. Pecker said that he remembers saying he “didn’t want to be involved in this.”

President Trump has maintained he is not guilty of any of the charges, and says the stories that were bought and squelched were false.

“There is no case here. This is just a political witch hunt,” he said before court in brief comments to reporters on Thursday.

Ms. Daniels was eventually paid by Mr. Cohen to not speak about her claim of a 2006 sexual encounter with President Trump. The ex-president denies it happened, while his lawyers have said that she is using the claims to make money and bolster her fame.

Although he did not buy her story, Mr. Pecker told Mr. Cohen that someone should make a move to suppress the claims from going public.

“I said to Michael, ‘My suggestion to you is that you should buy the story, and you should take it off the market because if you don’t and it gets out, I believe the boss will be very angry with you,’” he said.

Later, Trump defense attorney Emil Bove opened his cross-examination by asking Mr. Pecker about his recollection of specific dates and meanings. He appeared to be laying further groundwork for the defense’s argument that any dealings President Trump had with the National Enquirer publisher were intended to protect himself, his reputation, and his family, not his campaign.

At one point on Thursday, Mr. Pecker said that when he spoke to President Trump about the former president reimbursing Mr. Cohen for paying Ms. Clifford, the former president told him that he had no idea what Mr. Pecker was referring to. He specifically testified that the former president “had no idea what [he] was talking about” when he asked about reimbursing Mr. Cohen.

He also said that he purchased the rights to former model Karen McDougal’s story as well but he stipulated that President Trump never told him to purchase that story—only that he and Mr. Cohen were concerned about the McDougal story from emerging.

Former Trump attorney Michael Cohen arrives at the district attorney’s office to complete his testimony before a grand jury in New York City on March 15, 2023. (Yuki Iwamura/AFP via Getty Images)

A conviction by the jury would not preclude President Trump from becoming president again, but because it is a state case, he would not be able to pardon himself if found guilty. The charge is punishable by up to four years in prison, although it’s not clear if the judge would seek to put him behind bars.

For the charges to be a felony, prosecutors have to prove their allegations that President Trump falsified business records in the furtherance of another crime. They have argued that the alleged falsification efforts were tantamount to election interference.

But the former president and his lawyers have said that they were simple legal expenses. They have also cast the credibility of Mr. Cohen into doubt, noting that he spent time in prison on fraud and other charges, and have noted that he has currently made a career out of criticizing President Trump in the media and on social media.

Mr. Cohen on Thursday wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, that he would stop commenting on the Trump trial.

“Despite not being the gagged defendant … I will cease posting anything about Donald on my X account or on the Mea Culpa Podcast until after my trial testimony. See you all in a month (or more),” he wrote.

On Friday morning, President Trump did not speak to the media before he entered the courtroom. However, he wrote a Truth Social post at around 9:20 a.m. criticizing the level of security at the Manhattan court.

“I’m at the heavily guarded Courthouse. Security is that of Fort Knox, all so that MAGA will not be able to attend this trial, presided over by a highly conflicted pawn of the Democrat Party. It is a sight to behold! Getting ready to do my Courthouse presser. Two minutes!” he wrote.

Earlier this week, he called on his supporters to peacefully protest the trial against him.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/26/2024 – 15:40

 

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Blinken Threatens China Over Russia Ties, Warns Xi Against “Downward Spiral” In Relations With US

Blinken Threatens China Over Russia Ties, Warns Xi Against “Downward Spiral” In Relations With US

On Friday Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, which brought to a close the US top diplomat’s three day visit to China. 

Blinken warned the Chinese leader of another potential “downward spiral” in relations and the two sides agreed this should be avoided, however, there were plenty of not so subtle barbs, warnings and threats exchanged.

AFP/Getty Images

President Xi in comments underscored that Beijing and Washington “should be partners rather than adversaries” – a familiar theme of top Chinese officials of late. “The world is big enough to accommodate the simultaneous development and prosperity of both China and the United States,” he said according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry readout.

But he added the caveat that US-China relations will only stabilize once the US takes “a positive and constructive view of China’s development.” 

“I proposed three major principles: mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation. They are not only a summary of past experience, but also a guide to the future,” the Chinese leader was quoted as saying.

Blinken responded in a statement to reporters by emphasizing “We want China’s economy to grow” but it remains that “the way China grows matters.”

“That means fostering a healthy economic relationship where American workers and firms are treated equally and fairly,” he continued, highlighting the Biden admin talking point of China’s unfair trade practices and the potential for certain US sectors being overrun with Chinese products.

During this second trip to China in less than a year by Blinken, the Secretary of State also called out China related to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

“Russia would struggle to sustain its assault on Ukraine without China’s support,” Blinken claimed provocatively, while also asserting China is the “top supplier” of Russia’s defense industrial base – albeit not in terms of lethal aid (but instead “dual use” technologies).

Blinken threatened punitive against on China if it continues to give support to Russia amid the Ukraine onslaught…

🇺🇸 Footage of Blinken threatening action against China if it continues to support Russia. pic.twitter.com/spt9AxMHFb

— S p r i n t e r F a c t o r y (@Sprinterfactory) April 26, 2024

This alleged support to Russia’s defense industry additionally constitutes a “medium to long-term threat that many Europeans feel viscerally that Russia poses to them,” Blinken continued.

He warned that the Biden administration is ready to introduce more sanctions against China if dual-use goods and technologies continue to be sent to Russia, including things previously listed such as: semiconductors, machine tools, chemical precursors, ball bearings, and optical systems.

As expected, China’s foreign ministry hit back at the commentary and accusations, saying Blinken is “unreasonably criticizing the normal trade and economic relations between Russia and China” – at a moment it’s pouring billions into one side of the war: Ukraine… while refusing to press for peace negotiations. “This is a very hypocritical and irresponsible approach,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbing told reporters later in the day Friday.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/26/2024 – 15:20

 

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Biden Admin Abandons Plan To Ban Menthol Cigarettes To Avoid ‘Angering Black Voters’

Biden Admin Abandons Plan To Ban Menthol Cigarettes To Avoid ‘Angering Black Voters’

The so-called ‘party of science’ has decided to abandon its plan to save millions of lives (of mostly African American youth) by choosing not to ban Menthol cigarettes after all…

In October 2023, the FDA said it was looking to ban menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars due to concerns these tobacco products are harming American youth.

“The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is looking to ban menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars due to concerns these tobacco products are harming American youth.

The agency estimated there were 18.5 million menthol cigarette smokers aged 12 and above in the United States in 2018, with “particularly high rates of use by youth, young adults, and African Americans and other racial and ethnic groups.”

Them in December 2023, after what some called a ‘blacklash’, White House officials were reportedly taking more time to review their sweeping ban plan, despite the science’s awful warnings:

“The federal agency estimates a ban on the flavor additive could prevent 300,000 to 650,000 smoking deaths over several decades.

They claim most of the preventable deaths would be among minority groups and Americans of African descent, who disproportionately smoke menthol cigarettes.”

And now, April 2024 (around six months before the election and with Biden’s poll numbers in the proverbial toilet), The Wall Street Journal reports that the Biden administration is reversing course on its plan to ban menthol cigarettes, after the White House weighed the potential public-health benefits of banning minty smokes against the political risk of angering Black voters in an election year.

Some Black community leaders had fought the measure, saying a ban would expand the illicit market for cigarettes and lead police to racially profile Black smokers.

The American Civil Liberties Union and some members of the Congressional Black Caucus expressed similar concerns.

The administration is expected to announce its decision as soon as Friday afternoon, according to people familiar with the matter.

So, to sum up: The White House is willing to ignore the potential (science-driven data) death of 650,000 mostly African American voters to improve its chances in November?

This couldn’t possibly have anything to so with the fact that minorities in America are starting to look for alternatives to the Democrats they have been indoctrinated to vote for all their lives… or the fact that swing-state polls shows black voters abandoning Biden in favor of Trump is huge numbers

Gotcha, “science” indeed!

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/26/2024 – 14:40

 

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Port Of Baltimore Partially Reopens, Allowing Trapped Cargo Ships To Exit  

Port Of Baltimore Partially Reopens, Allowing Trapped Cargo Ships To Exit  

Officials at the Port of Baltimore opened a fourth, 35-foot deep, temporary channel through the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge, allowing cargo ships trapped at the port to exit. 

According to Bloomberg‘s ship tracking data, four of seven ships trapped at the port navigated the new temporary channel and are sailing down the Chesapeake Bay. 

On Thursday, the Balsa 94, a bulk carrier sailing under a Panama flag, transited the temporary channel for Saint John, Canada. Three other ships, including the Saimaagracht cargo vessel, the Carmen vehicle carrier, and the Phatra Naree bulk carrier, were also able to exit. 

The general cargo ship Balsa 94 becomes the first ship to use the @portofbalt‘s 35-foot-deep Limited Access Channel promised by the @USACEHQ by the end of April. The ship had been stuck in the harbor since the March 26 collapse of the Key Bridge.

Updated story here:… pic.twitter.com/LZeE9o5rne

— gCaptain (@gCaptain) April 25, 2024

The new 35-foot depth channel is a massive increase compared to smaller channels opened several weeks after the Dali container ship slammed into the bridge one month ago, toppling the bridge and paralyzing the port. 

“While this is a significant achievement, we have a long way to go, and Unified Command is committed to fully opening the channel by the end of May,” US Coast Guard Cmdr. Baxter Smoak told reporters. 

Next week, salvage crews expect to refloat Dali, which will then be pushed back to port by tugboats for inspection. Once Dali and all debris are removed, the main shipping channel could reopen next month. 

However, Ben Schafer, an engineering professor at Johns Hopkins University, told AP News that a new bridge could take five to seven years to be rebuilt. 

“The lead time on air conditioning equipment right now for a home renovation is like 16 months, right?” Schafer said. 

He continued: “So it’s like you’re telling me they’re going to build a whole bridge in two years? I want it to be true, but I think empirically it doesn’t feel right to me.”

Let’s remember that the bridge was critical for the port and a critical feeder to the Interstate 95 highway network up and down the mid-Atlantic area. Local supply chain snarls will persist for years. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/26/2024 – 14:25

 

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US State Department Arabic Spokesperson Resigns Over Biden’s Gaza Policy

US State Department Arabic Spokesperson Resigns Over Biden’s Gaza Policy

Via Middle East Eye

The Arabic language spokesperson of the US State Department has resigned over Washington’s Gaza war policy, in the third senior level resignation from the department since the war began.

Hala Rharrit, a Palestinian-American, posted her resignation on the LinkedIn social media site, stating: “I resigned April 2024 after 18 years of distinguished service in opposition to the United States’ Gaza policy.”

Hala Rharrit, Arabic language spokesperson for the State Department, has quit in protest. Image: State Dept.

Rharrit, who joined the State Department as a political and human rights officer, was also the department’s Dubai regional media hub deputy director.

When asked about the resignation, a State Department spokesperson told Reuters on Thursday that the department has channels for its staff to share views when they disagree with government policies.

In late March, Annelle Sheline, a foreign affairs officer in the State Department’s human rights bureau, stepped down in protest over the Biden administration’s support for Israel, saying it had made her job promoting human rights “almost impossible”

Earlier, veteran State Department official Josh Paul, a former director overseeing US arms transfers, resigned over Biden’s “destructive, unjust” supply of arms to Israel just days after the war on Gaza began.

In January, a senior Palestinian-American official in the US Education Department, Tariq Habash, resigned from his post, saying he could no longer “stay silent as this administration turns a blind eye to the atrocities committed against innocent Palestinian lives.”

Despite mounting international criticism of Israel’s offensive that has reportedly killed more than 34,300 people and flattened swathes of Gaza, the Biden administration has continued to provide its ally with a steady stream of weapons. Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that the White House was eyeing an additional $1bn weapons deal with Israel.

On Wednesday, the US Senate joined the House of Representatives in passing an aid bill that will provide $26bn in aid for Israel and Palestine, with $4bn set to replenish Israel’s missile defense system and roughly $9bn slated for humanitarian assistance to Palestinians in Gaza.

There have been reports of internal dissent within the Biden administration as the death toll in Gaza continues to mount. In November, more than 1,000 officials at USAID, the State Department’s international aid organisation, signed an open letter calling for an immediate ceasefire. Cables criticizing the administration’s policy have also been filed with the State Department’s internal “dissent channel”.

The war has also sparked widespread anti-war demonstrations across the United States, with protests in recent weeks escalating across US universities. Student-led protests have seen encampments set up on major campuses demanding divestment from companies involved in Israel’s occupation of Palestinian land and “genocide” in Gaza. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/26/2024 – 14:05

 

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IDF Shelling Hammers Rafah As Egypt Sends Top Intel Official To Avert Ground Offensive

IDF Shelling Hammers Rafah As Egypt Sends Top Intel Official To Avert Ground Offensive

Egypt is attempting a last ditch effort to reach a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel at a moment IDF shelling of Rafah has intensified, in what are seen as ‘softening’ operations ahead of an imminent ground offensive, despite international calls to cancel the operation.

The Egyptian government on Friday dispatched a high level delegation to Israel led by top intelligence official Abbas Kamel. The Associated Press reported he is presenting a “new vision” for prolonged ceasefire.

But key to a breakthrough is agreement on the remaining Israeli hostages being released, and the two sides seem no closer to achieving that. The Wall Street Journal cites that “Egyptian officials familiar with the negotiations say the talks toward a hostage deal have little chance of success, but hope to use the meetings to buy time for the U.S. and regional powers to pressure Israel to pause its plans to attack Rafah.”

While things heat up in the south of the Strip, the IDF has reportedly allowed many displaced Palestinians to return to their homes in northern Gaza “with minimum restrictions”.

According to more via WSJ: “The main stumbling block in the negotiations now is Hamas’s demand that any deal include a credible path to a permanent cease-fire, rather than a temporary pause in the fighting, according to Egyptian and other officials familiar with the negotiations.”

As for Egypt, it is bracing for a likely massive refugee influx across its border and into Sinai should an all-out Rafah assault be unleashed. Both Egypt and Israel have been establishing camps; however, these would likely reach and overflow in capacity within 24 hours of a Rafah ground operation.

One top Hamas official told international media correspondents that Hamas is willing to agree to a truce of five years or more with Israel. But Hamas has stuck by its key demand of a full Israeli military withdrawal from the Strip. At the same time Prime Minister Netanyahu has vowed to see through his vow of eradicating Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorists.

Hamas has also said it is willing to lay down its weapons if Israel vows to uphold a two-state solution. Some European countries have also called for this, and have pushed for Palestine to become a full-fledged member of the United Nations.

On Friday at least five more Palestinians have been reported killed by the intensified shelling in Rafah. Currently, more than half of the total Gaza Strip population of 2.3 million are believe to be packed into the southern city. Humanitarian aid organizations are warning of an impending disaster if there is a full military ground offensive. The past weeks have seen dozens killed in similar shelling attacks.

A large segment of the Israeli population believes that Prime Minister Netanyahu is launching into a Rafah operation full-steam for the sake of his political survival. One fresh Haaretz headline, for example reads: “Fearing the End of His Coalition, Netanyahu Edges Toward Rafah Operation Over Hostage Deal”.

IMPORTANT — It could take 14 years to clear debris in #Gaza

An estimated 37 million tonnes of debris has been left by #Israel’s war on Gaza’s widely urbanised, densely populated territory.

Source — Pehr Lodhammar, senior officer at the United Nations Mine Action Service… pic.twitter.com/VwpKyPmE8u

— Hala Jaber (@HalaJaber) April 26, 2024

Below are some fresh Associated Press headlines detailing the latest developments Friday…

Ship comes under attack off coast of Yemen as Houthi rebel campaign appears to gain new speed
Satellite photos show new port construction in Gaza Strip for US-led aid operation
Some campuses call in police to break up pro-Palestinian demonstrations, while others wait it out
Chef José Andrés says aid workers killed by Israeli airstrikes represented the ‘best of humanity’
UN report says 282 million people faced acute hunger in 2023, with the worst famine in Gaza
EU military officer says a frigate has destroyed a drone launched from Yemen’s Houthi-held areas
North Gaza still headed toward famine, UN food agency says
Israel masses military vehicles along Gaza border

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/26/2024 – 13:45

 

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